![]() Foil Thoughtseize is currently being listed as high as 1.800 EUR, while Ponder is around 500 EUR. Everyone seems to be chasing the foil Thoughtseize or Ponder. The same is true for the majority of rare/mythics in the regular set. On Cardmarket the current price for the majority of old-border cards is below the pre-sale price at the same time, the pre-sale price of boxes was substantially lower than what the boxes are being sold for currently. Anything that's not either a) very popular or b) played in playsets in non-rotating formats will most likely also plummet. Most of the box value will be held in old-border cards, but these will also change dramatically. Most of the Time Spiral Remastered rares will crash hard in a week or two simply because it's a reprint set. Yeah, there's no way the EV of the set is above (or even getting close to) $600. If you can find any packs at target or what have you, its worth doing. I expect these boxes to hit at least $400 per box before too long and won't be surprised if they end up at $500 or 600 a box. My LGS told me that there will be no resupply. My LGS is totally sold out, as is the local walmart and target. I had bought a few boxes to flip and now I'm sitting on them. If you were going to part a Box out and sell the valuable cards, assuming a handling fee of 15% and only selling cards worth 10$ or more at current MARKET prices, you would have a gross total sales of: $448.89 +/- $110.82 SDĮven at the current box prices of $300 its still a bargain! Furthermore according to MTG Goldfish price ticker, this set has already bottomed out and is climbing again. If you were going to part a Box out and sell the valuable cards, assuming a handling fee of 15% and only selling cards worth 4$ or more at current MARKET prices, you would have a gross total sales of: $489.99 +/- $118.58 SD The Expected Value of a Box (not including uncommon and common that aren't foils) is: $679.07 +/- $133.92 SD The Expected Value of a Box, considering only cards worth $4 or more is: $612.49 +/- $148.23 SD The Expected Value of a Box, considering only cards worth $10 or more is: $561.12 +/- $138.52 SD The value is BETTER than the article which was guessing at $500 and didn't include the variances (SD = Standard Deviation). I did it as a series of simulation models where I simulated 36 packs of cards within boxes to get box values and did 1000 boxes per run to get a mean and standard deviation on expected box value. I took the mtg goldfish article on expected value for Time Spiral Remastered ( ), used the reported probabilities of each card type, and recalculated the box values with the prices for regular foils and time shifted border foils with current MARKET prices as of today on MTG Stocks. This is reposted from another thread after a commenter told me to start a new one to share. I'll try to figure out if there is an issue and repost, but it seems clear that the lottery aspect of the foil old border cards and their expected value which is huge part of the potential box value is a big X factor in getting this correct. Card prices are swinging wildly and are all over the price. I spent some time last night going over this with one helpful redditor, not sure if/where there is an error but I did notice very very large differences in market prices for foil cards between their list and mine. ![]() # UPDATE: A number of folks have suggested that this distribution is higher than it ought to be and that it doesn't reflect personal experience. No threads asking what to do with your cards or money Single questions about cards/money/selling advice should be asked in the stickied threads posted every Mo/We/Fr. "Buyer beware" posts require submitting proof with identifying info removed. SCD, Video and card photo posts must include a brief summary. No Low Effort Posts: If you are requesting research, or the answer to your question can be found through public knowledge, find it yourself and post it. No spam, flaming, brigading, harassing.Īll posts must be financially related / No counterfeit authentication requests. Otherwise, request your post get approved manually by a moderator.įollow Redditiquette. ![]() Friday - Things to look out for this weekend!įor submissions, users must have at least 500 combined Karma to post.Wednesday - Weekly Ask MTGFinance Anything.Monday - Weekend Wrapup! What was real and what was a trap.
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |